A 3D Update, Part 3

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So, what do we know, so far.  (Remember- this series started on Monday- with a sneak preview last Wednesday!)  3D printing apps are now available on all new PC’s, since there’s an app that is part of Windows 8.  3D printers that work with the app are out, and even more are coming.  And, now, we can bet that file-sharing (or file selling) programs will let us obtain the designs we want to print for ourselves.

And, once 3D printing is available to 10 or 20% of the users, then we can expect every one of our products to be at risk.  (Given that the Microsoft 3D printing app is out, that date is here- or coming very, very soon.)   Just think what that ubiquity means.   I can examine a few patents, pick one I like, and create a software design to reproduce that product.  (All patented items have to have explicit instructions that describe the product and detail its specifications.)  Or, I could just use my cheap 3D scanner (Microsoft Kinect is already running- wait till you read next week’s post!) to produce the computerized model, tweak it a little- and voila! One finished product.

We can expect companies to sue websites that share these computer models, to sue folks who prepare such models, and the like.  Which really means that we are in for a decade or so of uncertainty as folks pretty much do what they want, figuring they won’t be the target of a lawsuit.  And, just like the results from the music business, the disruption will mean that there will copying and proliferation- but at a controlled level- maybe.  Because, it will be tough to regulate folks who use designs that are customized from that originally patented.

What and how a business will deal with the production of parts for which they have patents?  What and how will their business models be affected? Because 3D printing is not just limited to toys- users can “print” plastic items (of course), but also items made from (or with) chocolate, steel, gold, proteins, even living cells!

How business will be changed by 3D printing

It won’t just be home tinkerers.  Other companies will be engaging in the technology.  You can bet that schools will obtain 3D printers (for free or at reduced prices) that will teach whole legions of folks how to employ the technology.  Staples already offers 3D printing at some locations; others will follow.  So, the world will be comprised of designers and/or manufacturers.  They will no longer relegated to be simply regarded as consumers.

Those who produce goods will now find that their (simpler) products can be made at home or in the office.  (It will be a while before more complex items will be subject to competition from 3D printing- but replacements parts, a once lucrative business, may all but disappear.)

Those that ship replacement parts or sell/store those items certainly must reconsider their options.  Complex replacements, like complex items, will be secure (for a while). But…

Yes, companies must adjust their models and reconsider their businesses.  Should it sell the computer software to let users print their own replacement parts?  (Those selling to the DOD- the US Department of Defense- already know the answer is no longer if, but when!)

Should companies become service providers, letting others print their products in their facilities?   Will Amazon- hopefully with your participation- extend its warehouse concept to include 3D printing and really amp up the customer experience?

It’s a Brave New World.  And, it’s here.. almost right now.

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