Not that I am one to mince words, generally, but this post may step on more than a few toes.  In advance, I ask your indulgence if I do- not for the facts (I didn’t make them up), but for any hurt feelings as some foundation myths and politically correct (but factually wrong) theories are shattered.

A new report has been published by the Pew Charitable Trusts.  It’s title says it all:  Downward Mobility:  Waking Up From the American Dream.  It’s thrust- almost 1/3 of all Americans who grew up as members of the middle-class no longer are.  While part of this change is the result of the American trend toward divorce and separation, it also includes folks who score poorly on standardized  tests, failed to complete college, or “dabbled” in hard drugs.

This study examined the data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, examining those teenagers, who were in the middle class in 1979 and attained the age of 39-44 in the years 2004-2006.   Middle Class was defined, for the purposes of this study, as those folks who ranged between the 30^th and 70^th percentile in income.  In 2010 dollars, that means a family of four whose income ranged between $ 32,900 and $ 64,000.  Downward mobility included all those who fell below the 30^th percentile, their income dropped 20 or more percentiles from those of their parents, or if their income is 20% less than their parents.  The study deliberately stopped at 2006, to avoid the cataclysmic changes that started with the current downturn (2007 and beyond).

Both women and men who failed to complete college were more likely to be downwardly mobile.  African-American men were particularly subject to this trend, with a census of 38% among the downwardly mobile (about 2X that for white males).  (Again,  this is  before 2007,  when the unemployment issue radically affected twice as many Blacks as Whites.)   And, for Hispanics and Blacks, men were more likely to be downwardly mobile than women, the opposite trend for Caucasians.

The Pew Report attributes this affect to the different scores (much lower) on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) among the various population groups.  In particular, the report found that “differences in AFQT scores between middle-class white and black men reduces the gap until it is indistinguishable from zero.”

Finally, the report concluded that being married helps to avoid the worst economic changes.  While this was true for both sexes, women who separate, divorce, or become widowed are far more likely to be downwardly mobile, compared to men.

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