Economy, Just Because

Gun Violence as an Epidemic?

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I’ve written before how Jared Cohen of Google Ideas has been trying to discern how to stop terrorism.  By determining the similarity how gangs recruit and initiate members to those methods employed by terrorists.  And, given those similarities, how to stop folks from belonging to either.  That’s a great idea to me.

Here’s another one.  Gary Slutkin has started a group called Cure Violence (it was previously known as CeaseFire) that is built upon his knowledge of epidemiology to try to stop gun violence.  He discerned that gun violence in many of the poorer neighborhoods of Chicago demonstrated epidemic-like behavior.

How?  The greatest predictor of violence was a previous episode of violence; that is how epidemics work, as well.   Gun violence clustered!  So, instead of sending out police and arresting folks, he tried dealing with this situation as a public health problem.  And, in so doing, he was able to diminish the the level of the next series of shootings.

Since violence is a learned behavior, CureViolence believes that the phenomenon can be changed using disease control models.  The conventional model for epidemic control is to first interrupt transmission, identify and change the thinking of transmitters with the highest potential to continue this violence, and then change the group norms.

The good news is that this is not an isolated program.   Save Our Streets [SOS] in Brooklyn (Crown Heights) has duplicated this scenario and model.  Under the supervision of Amy Ellenbogen,  intervention is the key response.   And, she is building on the finds of Jared Cohen, as well, by employing staff (“outreach”) that were formerly gang members, themselves.   In an epidemic, we try to find and isolate the carrier,  so in this case, those most likely to employ guns are sought.  The staff works with them (over time) to convince them that gun use is not the best response.

The outreach staff coordinate their efforts with mediators (“violence interrupters”).  They come into play right after a shooting has occurred, to try to stop others from retaliating, from escalating up the gun violence spiral. That means one must work with the person who was shot and/or his family and friends.  The system works because gang members are generally worried they could be shot themselves.  Stopping the cycle fits that mentality- once the cycle has been broken.  And, they need those mediators to help insure the cycle is broken.

ShotSpotter

The concept is also being applied in Philadelphia, Baltimore, Niagara Falls, and Kansas City, among other cities.  Here in the DC area, we don’t have such groups.  But, we should.

We do have a slew of microphones that listen for gun shots.  That program is called ShotSpotter- with some 300 acoustic sensors that span 20 square miles of DC.  Given that guns are illegal in DC, it’s not surprising that twice as many shots are “heard” versus the number reported.  (There were roughly 6000 such “sightings” in 2011. )

Given the random (and specific) shootings that occur in this area, it seems that programs like the ones above would be useful here, too.  Especially, when the news reports detail all those  “revenge” shootings.

What about where YOU live?

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14 thoughts on “Gun Violence as an Epidemic?”

  1. My friends daughter was just two classrooms down from the shooter at Arapahoe high school. And while I think these kinds of programs are necessary. They are far from enough to curb the problem. We need better health care for the mentally ill, focus on family and community and less on video games and the internet and stronger gun control laws. But it’s a start.

    1. I’m with you on the better care for the mentally ill… but I’m not sure video games will or won’t make a dent in this behavior.
      I think we should stop worrying about the guns- and regulate the ammunition. Limit the number of bullets that can be purchased and possessed. That’s NOT a constitutional right. (Yes, I am parsing the Constitution- but so is the other side, claiming they have the right to guns, like they are “well-regulated militias”.)

  2. I like the idea and the approach. I wish that there were antibiotics to tackle gun violence. But there isn’t, right? I also don’t understand why stricter gun controls are not implemented. Maybe I am too European.
    Muriel recently posted..Tired Of The French Cliches

    1. Thanks, Alessa. But, it wouldn’t happen without the courageous efforts of those mediators- as Suerae reminded us. Because someone has to venture into the lion’s den to get these behaviors changed.
      Thanks for the visit!

  4. It makes sense to me to treat violence as epidemic outbreaks and I applaud those that you mention who have started the work to help curb it. I think the mediators must be extremely courageous people. It seems that this would be a good program for all cities. Ours is a small town, but violence even finds its way here.

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