Soon, not a drop to drink…

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I’ve discussed on several occasions that the world’s next wars will be over water.  Not only because we are running short of potable water, but because we are running short of water for almost all purposes.  It doesn’t help matters that there is no international treaty that governs actions when waterways cross national boundaries.  Typically, it means that downstream nations get the short straw.

Now, don’t quote to me that there is a UN Convention on non-navigational uses of waterways.  I know it was signed almost 15 years ago today (21 May 1997), with the exclusion of China, Turkey, and Burundi.  And, while China and Turkey are clearly among the big violators of the concepts therein, only 24 nations ever ratified the document (35 were needed), so those countries really can’t be blamed for violating a treaty that has never been ratified.  Moreover, they let the world know they would probably not be following its provisions, when they did not sign it in the first place.  (For example, China said it has “indisputable territorial sovereignty over those parts of international watercourses that flow through its territory”.)

This is one of the reasons why China, India, and Tibet are fighting over the same land.  There are five large rivers (the Indus, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween and Mekong) that flow out of the region- and that water can reach as far as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Cambodia.  As if those five rivers in their own country were not enough to exploit, China has made deals with Burma to harness the rivers (12 separate dams) there for power needs.

Proof of the damage is already appearing.  China has already constructed ½ of its planned dams on the Mekong river.  It claims this is good news for people, since it collects the monsoon rains and then dispenses them during the dry season, and is evening out the water flow.  That may be a small fact- but data show that the weaker flood pulse is affording the South China Sea the ability to penetrate into the Mekong Delta, 70 km so far.  The prime rice paddy region of the world’s second largest rice exporter is clearly being destroyed.  These actions may also be damaging the fisheries of Cambodia (one of its primary exports) in the area (due to salt water infestation).

But, it’s not those countries that are being affected.  The Nubian Aquifer (which via carbon and krypton dating has been found to be some 1,000,000 years old) supplies Libya, Egypt, Chad, and both Sudan states.  Egypt is draining it big time to feed its regions that are not supplied by the Nile River.  Moreover, none of the contiguous nations protected the basin, so it just gets worse.

That is the real issue.  Most of our (the world’s) drinking water emanates from the underground aquifers (and not from our rivers). For example, the Guarani aquifer (South America) exceeds the volume present in all five of America’s Great Lakes  (some 40,000 km3 ).  The UN estimates that 97% of our fresh water supply is situated in our underground aquifers   As if our land use practices (or energy production systems) are not polluting them with impunity, we are not protecting them from encroachment with ocean waters.

And, the oft-disputed climate change is affecting our water systems, too.  Those regions of the US that are dry are becoming drier, while those with more waterfall and gaining water.  Those droughts in Africa that were the subjects of “We Are The World” concerts in the late 80s are going to be even more parched soon enough (as will be Texas).  And, the drop in rainfall (and our withdrawals from the water tables) will deplete the aquifers even more quickly.

As another example, the Central Valley aquifer (California) is being depleted so quickly by agricultural use that is will be devoid of supply by the end of this century.  In Australia, the aquifer draining is due to one of the few different reasons; it’s mining that is the cause of this depletion.

But, there are also local laws that create problems.  For example, the Colorado River traverses many farms and several states that are limited in their ability to withdraw water, because much of the flow has already been legislated for California.  And, in South Africa, east of Johannesburg, settlements near the Olifants are prohibited from using the river.  By law, this water belongs to a few (rich) White farmers to grow wheat, maize and oranges; the law stipulates that the water is not a national asset, but belongs to those whose property the river traverses.

South Africa is preparing a program to obliterate these 100 year old laws of riparian rights.  Of course, there are tinges of Apartheid involved in this issue.  But, whichever way the laws go,  this will be a very spirited battle.   But, it’ll be nothing compared to the impending battles between nations over the issue.

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16 thoughts on “Soon, not a drop to drink…”

  1. We humans amazing me, Dr. A. Our capacity for denial is boundless. I’ve thought about this water situation too, and agree with you that the next wars will be fought for that rather than the oil we think we need now. Science sees the future, it’s numbers not magic, but we’d all rather play king of the castle with things for power than do something about it. We are our own worst enemy.

    So what solutions do you see to the problem if you could make someone listen to your voice? I have no doubt you have somethings in mind. 😉
    Lisa Brandel recently posted..The Painted Lady by Lisa Brandel

    1. Well, Lisa, when I become Dictator of the world….
      I would set up limits on the appropriation of water from each of the transnational systems. And, require that the flows are not withheld. The issue is to determine who is entitled to what volume- and then, since I were the Dictator- I could force the two almost-warring parties to accept my ruling or else. (Of course, I would also have to be the all-powerful Dictator to insure that compliance….)

      Roy

  2. I knew it! I just didn’t know the science or research behind it. This is what I consider news (rather than what networks air). Thank you for the research and why behind this concept!

    Now, I’m on to do further research as this is very interesting and the resulting situation that will occur if we don’t quit fighting over something so simple as water…SMH…

    ~Kesha
    Kesha Brown recently posted..Cover Story Dreams: Which Magazine Cover Would You Be On?

  3. I live in Arizona and am a part of the issues with the Colorado River. The US has an agreement with Mexico to allow a certain amount of the water to flow through to them depending on their current needs. Unfortunately, they end up hoarding water in an attempt to overinflate their needs. There’s never an easy solution to these challenges.
    Nicole Bandes recently posted..7 Tips to Stop Complaining

  4. This is a scary subject to read about. I know that growing up in Montana the ranches came with water rights and it seemed there was always fighting occuring over someone taking more water then they had rights to. Just trying to think of this on a large scale it could get very ugly.
    shawn recently posted..Follow the Path of Love

  5. I just hope that some enterprising group will be able to come up with solutions to fix our water problem. Otherwise, we might end up fighting for every single drop of the valuable liquid.
    Laurence recently posted..best spain travel deals

    1. I think the problem has two prongs, Laurence.
      One- how we can yield water for process and drinking from other sources- available anywhere. (For example, I reported on a wind farm that recovers water from the humidity in air.)
      Second- how to adjudicate- fairly and equitably- these cross-border issues.

      Roy

  6. Thanks for enlightening me on the details. I did know about the fight of India over the water bodies but thanks about bringing forward so many aspects.

    As for the fight for water, it looks inevitable unless we do something about it right now….
    Hajra recently posted..You Spik Inglish?

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