I’ve written a little about the recent 2012 Elections in the US. And, I don’t want to make a practice of letting politics overtake this blog. But, this post is not really about partisanship.

We have all heard that getting young people to vote one way or the other is a critical issue for the political parties. Because, once folks begin to learn the habit of voting one way, that habit stays a long time. (I’ll discuss how and why it changes later on in this piece.)

And, as most folks know, younger folks voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party in 2008. And, while the margins decreased (by about 7%), they did so vote the same way again in 2012. In 2010, when the Republican Party achieved major gains in Congress, most of those younger folks failed to vote. This is a problem, in general, in America, that so many folks fail to recognize that each election has consequences- for their local government, for state government, and for their national needs.

But, there’s another factor that most people don’t recognize. Even though this was first discussed four years ago. Larry Bartels (Princeton University) published “The Irrational Electorate” in the Wilson Quarterly (2008).

His treatise was in response to a book by Richard Schenkman, “Just How Stupid Are We?”. Schenkman felt that public ignorance is the reason why folks vote the way they do. That since they don’t know their Senators or Congressfolks, they must be totally ignorant of the government processes, in general, and fail to choose properly. Bartels wonders who decides what is “properly”.  I, for one, wonder how 10% of the electorate in this past election was still undecided as late as 1 November.  (And, as I voiced then- why would we want such individuals to vote?)

Bartels cites research that showed that when voters perused photographs of nominees (Senators, Representatives, Governors) to determine if they were competent,  that determination correlated fairly well to their actual votes. (Like a photograph could determine such facts!) That trend was strongest among the less informed voters and those subjected to the most advertising. (Given the plethora of ads in the nine battleground states this year, that does not bode well for “informed voting” in the future.)

But, the one common thread in voters’ choices is they do vote their pocketbook. When, a recession has turned, when the economy that was sour begins to boom- the party that was in power when that change occurred tends to be the voters’ choice for the next decade or so.

This is true not only in the US, according to Bartels, but around the world. It obtained in Britain and Australia (Labor for Conservatives). It was true in Sweden (Conservatives for Liberals). As well as Saskatchewan (Conservatives for Socialists) and Alberta (socialist with rightists) in Canada- and let’s not forget the Weimar, when the Nazis took over.

One of the trends he did not discuss was in the US South. The grand abandonment of the Democratic Party for the Republicans by the White majority (at the time), as a result of their racial politics.

As Bartels said- it is

proof that voters are not stupid- just predictably irrational.

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