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Big Rigs a-comin’, comin’ down the road…

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I have always had an enamored view of truck-drivers. Since I was a little boy. Back then, there really were no interstate highways. And, my family would travel the roads (yes, late at night- that’s how I learned that was the best time to travel). And, when we wanted to pass a slow-moving truck, my dad would double-flash his brights (bright lights) to inform the vehicle of our attempt. And, when we were in front of the truck, ready to return to our lane, the truck driver would double-beam my dad, letting him know that he was absolutely clear of the vehicle.

(By the way, in many places in the US, it is still a requirement to notify the vehicle you plan to pass via double-beams. I still practice this everywhere I drive.)

Later on in my life, long after the development of some 100 to 200 new devices and drugs, I headed up a manufacturing/marketing firm for one of the products about which a client panicked- and for which we couldn’t find an advantageous buyer. Over the first year or so, we relied on common carriers to deliver our product. But, after a while, it became obvious, we needed to control our destiny more carefully by starting up our own trucking operations.

We bought straight trucks (those 25 to 30 foot vehicles that have the van portion on top of their chassis) and semi-trailers (the “big rigs”), and a slew of trailers. The costs for these vehicles were the highest capital costs for our firm. And, we chose trucks that were high quality, easily serviced, and got the best mileage for which we could hope. (Trust me, we are talking about 8 or 9 miles per gallon! The numbers are considerably higher now, thankfully.)

(I’ve written about my trucking experiences, often. Here is but one example. )

That business has long since passed into history. But…
When I heard about Elon Musk’s new idea, an electric truck, it sent chills down my spine. Even if that truck were to cost $250K (it is not supposed to be that high), it would be a tremendous boon for transportation companies. Consider that the average rig covers 200K miles a year. At even 10 miles per gallon- and the lower fuel prices that obtain now- we are talking about $40,000 a year in fuel costs. Compared to about $1500 in electric costs. So, the maximum differential would be paid off in about 2 years or less. Plus, electric vehicles have fewer parts that can “go bad”, so service costs will be lower.

Musk promises that his rig won’t break down for 1 million miles. (Our diesel trucks had major overhauls every 250K miles.) This claim is believable,  because this electric truck will have four separate (and independent) motors – with neither gears nor transmissions.

You can bet that the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will be thrilled as well. Right now, all those containers (off-loaded from ships or to be loaded onto awaiting ships) are moved about by old rigs (some long past their prime) that belch out tons of emissions. Moreover, these rigs are often idled- and running- awaiting the delivery of the container to their flat-bed trailer. The port authorities have been demanding the trucking firms buy new rigs to reduce the air pollution. (It’s said that these two ports now contribute the bulk of the air pollution to the Los Angeles basin. And, that’s a LOT of pollution.)

Consider a few other facts. 70% of the goods bought in the USA are delivered by truck. And, the trucking business sector is some $ 700 billion large (about 5% of our GDP), of which about $ 60 billion is used for wages.  There are about 34 million trucks, of which some 4 million are class 8 (big rigs). Yes, there are some 1.7 million truck drivers (I always find it funny that there are more trucks than drivers) in this sector- of whom 95% never went to college. While 75% of truck drivers are White, 90% of them are men. And, truck driving is the most common profession in 29 states (even in the manufacturing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin).

And, therein lies the rub. Whether it’s an electric truck- or those newer rigs that don’t have 15 or 18 gears (they employ an automatic transmission), these vehicles are ripe for autonomy. With the promise of safer highways and a reduction in transit period.

Except- this also means the demise of those jobs. Yup. The development of these autonomous tractors, the big rigs, will cause 1 million folks to lose their jobs- about the same time that the personal tax cuts just enacted will expire in 2026.

(By the way, as I hinted above, this is not strictly related to electric truck availability.  Many of the newer tractors already have automatic transmissions, which allows for cruise control. They even have those fancy lane-control systems that automobiles haveFull-fledged autonomy just requires a few more technology pieces.)

And, that’s a good place to stop today. Tomorrow, we’ll investigate these facts in a little different fashion.

Roy A. Ackerman, Ph.D., E.A.

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15 thoughts on “Big Rigs a-comin’, comin’ down the road…”

  1. Talk about good news and bad news. It would be awesome to have those electric trucks but at the cost of a million jobs? Nothing good comes without a price unfortunately

    1. I’ve been warning the independent truck driver of this situation for a long time. I know we won’t stop progress, but I’m hoping the drivers find a way to ensure their continued employment (or self-employment) in this business segment.

  2. Hmm, so the dream truck possibility (probability, I guess) is kind of a kiss and a kick! It would be great for those who own the trucks & use them for deliveries, but not so great for truck drivers who don’t want the delivery process to become automated. It does sound exciting, though.

    1. When I was in elementary school, I had a friend (still remember his name- Bob Neufeld) who was planning to enter Pasadena School of Design (now the Art Center School of Design) and design cars. His drawings were fantabulous. I wonder if he ever made it.

  3. Really interesting to see where technology and innovation is going, but with it, you do need to find new avenues for employment once an industry becomes redundant. Not related to trucks, but we were talking about a story we read yesterday about supermarkets, where in China, they now have the technology that you sacn your face and link your bank account, and just walk out of the shop with your trolley. It scans all the barcodes at once, and debits it from your account. But it also means that supermarket jobs will be non existent, and as you mentioned with truck drivers, many of these jobs are made up of those who didn’t go through college etc. So will need to have employment solutions which can keep up with technology advances.

  4. If I was a big rig driver, I think I would be concerned about not having enough places to recharge my truck. But since I’m not a big rig driver, I will pull my pickup truck to the gas pump.
    Martha recently posted..A Day in History

    1. Just so you know, Martha, many of the “gas stations” are already equipping their facilities with high speed automobile charging stations. (OK, just high speed enough to ensure you buy food and drink and maybe something else in their attached “quick marts”.

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