This is the first of three or four (I may coalesce some) about our blood system.  I am sorry that it’s been moved around so much in the queue that they won’t appear in  three consecutive days [because of all the Jewish holidays].  But, by next week the series will be posted in full.

Eight years ago, I reported some interesting research done by 3 Canadian physicians from Halifax.  Using some long-term patient databases, they were able to create what they called the Frailty Index.

Using 42 parameters, the index could assist physicians in predicting the mortality for various patients.  Obviously, the older a patient, the higher the mortality risk; but they found many younger subjects with a variety of maladies that would put them atop the mortality risks.

Well, now a bunch of researchers may have found a similar predictor using blood tests.  (Actually, this test predicts how healthy a patient is; meaning they are less vulnerable to major mortality risks.)  Dr. Joris Deelen (lead author, Max Plank Institute for the Biology of Aging) and Dr. P. Eline Slagboom (Leiden University Medical Center) were the correspondents for the 36 authors (this was a trans-European effort) of “A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals” published in Nature Communications.

This blood test, developed by studying some 44K subjects, tracked over up to 16 years (and ranging in age from 18 to 109),  was more than 80% accurate (i.e., less accurate that the Frailty Index) at predicting mortality risk within 5 to 10 years. Over the course of the study, 5512 subjects expired.

The team found that 14 indicators (plus gender) from the  226 metabolites and byproducts were the key parameters.  Some of them were the ability of the body to digest fat and glucose, degrees of inflammation, fluid balances- all of which affect a series of chronic maladies, as well as our resilience, our ability to recover from illness and/or injury.

In particular, Leiden University researchers are hoping this test can help predict which hip injury patients are likely to develop complications and which kidney patients will develop dementia or delirium as they undergo dialysis.

We all should know that this process is not yet ready for prime time.  But, it is the basis to be refined to make the test more accurate and usable in the future.

In the meantime, I would stick to the Frailty Index!

Share this: