Coming soon to a car near you?

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Whoa!

I read this blurb and wondered about the wisdom of the act.

Elon Musk and his Tesla firm are going to “automatically” update their cars to “full self-driving” capability sometime later this year.  (You do recall that Tesla has claimed their self-driving mode lets the driver go to sleep.  I have friends who’ve already done that- and they are currently in the market for new cars as we speak.)

Fully Self-Driving Tesla

Let that sink in.  And, then let the panic ensue.

By the way, Tesla will be doing this without any lidar (light detection and ranging) systems on board.  As far as I know, every other vendor examining autonomous driving believe this is a critical need, not a want.  (Tesla claims its cameras and radar sensors are able to triangulate the field of vision better than could lidar.  Consumer Reports claims the Navigate on Autopilot feature is far less competent than a human driver.)

Tesla claims lidar is not necessary, since they’ve been collecting data for years.  And, they claim to have an excellent track record- about 1 crash for every 2.87 million miles with Autopilot engaged so far this year. (The normal rate of accidents is 1 every 436,000 miles.  But, then again, how sure are we that no one was second guessing the autopilot feature in those Tesla’s?)   Moreover, autopilot is typically engaged on highways and freeways, not our city streets.  (Oh- and we don’t have separate data for driving on highways and freeways- only for all of human-controlled driving.  And, we already know that most accidents happen within 5 miles of home- which means not on freeways.)

Let’s also not forget that Tesla admonishes its drivers to have our hands on the wheel, even when using autopilot.  Which is exactly what everyone is NOT so doing.

Oh, yeah.  You also do know that autonomous driving is a self-regulated activity?  That there are no enforceable rules (as of today)?

The world never developed the way GM thought it would back in 1964, with its Futurama exhibit.  That driving of the future (which is clearly our present) would involve sensors in the road, what we now would call ‘smart signage’ that would let cars keep safe distances from one another, be able to change lanes safely without much driver input- and would recognize stop and yield signs.  (Yes, I know that most drivers already fail to recognize stop and yield signs.   But, that doesn’t mean I want Tesla to have the same right to violate the signs.)

It does seem that cities are beginning to recognize that the landscape has to change.  That we need different signage, different signals, and different places where cars can discharge passengers.  We also may not need those vast parking lots, leaving more room for parks, open space- and, especially, affordable housing.   (Did you know that LA now has parking garages with flat floors and higher ceilings? So the structures can be converted to office space or apartments as the need for car parking dwindles.)

After all, autonomous vehicles will go hand-in-hand with car sharing.  Fewer cars.  Autonomous driving will let the space between vehicles shrink.

Or, if one wants to play devil’s advocate, if lower housing prices don’t prevail, folks will move further out, increasing commuting time, but they’ll be reading the paper, watching a movie, or holding a meeting while being transported home.  That’s what a study done by the University of Maryland (National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education center) determined would prevail in the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) region.  According to their study, we’ll be taking more trips, avoid mass transit, and live further out in the exurbs.  (That’s similar in results to a study that examined the Boston region.)

Perhaps by imposing a per-mile tax for all vehicles, this sort of behavior can be contained.Roy A. Ackerman, Ph.D., E.A.

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6 thoughts on “Coming soon to a car near you?”

  1. Very interesting! It just occurred to me that cars like this could be very helpful for people who have chronic illnesses, or other physical limitations. Or those who don’t like to drive or find it stressful. Not only that, but with a driverless car, you could run an errand without even leaving home, as long as there is someone to help at the other end.

  2. Call me old fashioned but I don’t like the idea of self driving cars. I guess I will put my money back in my pocket and not purchase a Tesla.

  3. I suspect when we have true self driving cars there will be a lot of unintended consequences. The good: seniors who can no longer handle driving being able to keep their independence. The possible bad: children having their own cars taking them to after school activities or – where???? The unforseen – many things. Things we may not even suspect will be a problem. So, does Tesla’s announcement give me comfort. Not at all. Just wait for the first horrific crash and the lawsuits to follow.

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