Knowns, Unknowns, Unknown unknowns

Feed the World

No Gravatar

I am sure, by now, you recognize that my research and business interests cross a variety of disciplines.  So, my casual reading in any given day can include the following journals:  Microbe, Journal of Bacteriology, Water Reuse, Nephrology News, JASN, JAMA, Harvard Business Review, Strategy+… you get the idea.

Which brings up the confluence of reading material that I read yesterday. (That means- yesterday when this was written.)  An article in Nature Microbiology gave me a whole different insight into global warming.   Drs. J. Zhou, K. Xue, M.M. Yuan, Z.J. Shi, Y. Qin, Y.D.L. Cheng, L. Wu, Z. He, J.D. van Nostrand, and Y. Luo from the University of Oklahoma studied the tundra and found that the microbes that inhabit the soil are dramatically affected by climate change.  The tundra actually releases more carbon than it traps, as a result of global warming.   The warming also stimulates aerobic respiration in the soil.   This is a real problem since the northern soils store at least 30% of the global soil organic carbon.

English: Map of Tundra region
English: Map of Tundra region (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Drs. Christina  Schadel  (Northern Arizona U) headed up a multi-university (way too many authors to include here) and multi-country study on the tundra.  Their findings demonstrated that a 10 C increase in temperature doubles the soil carbon release to the atmosphere.  But,  drier, oxygen-rich concentrations triples that release.

Those two articles- coupled with the realization that water is becoming more scarce means that it’s not just how we humans are changing the world- it’s how the world responds to the changes we are producing.  But, it’s not by correcting for our intrusions; instead, the changes are being amplified.

And, I’ve already written that our water supplies are in deep trouble.   Which is why the World Bank is trying to help those (poorer) nations that will be the worst hit.

But, there are companies that are working to make sure these problems are minimized.  And, today, I will let you know what one of them is doing.

This company has been reorganizing itself over the past two decades to be the company that will help the world feed itself.  Which is a real issue when you consider that we will be needing food for almost 10 billion folks by 2050, on less free land, and with much less water than we have now.  Of course, we should use fewer resources to do so, since we don’t have quite enough for everyone today- and that problem will be exacerbated as the rest of the world starts developing their own middle class populations.  Because as folks get richer, their diets will change accordingly.

Climate change has already cut crop yields by 2.5% over the past decade (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).  That decrease can’t be made up by improving seed technology alone.  Better seeds can only increase yields by 1%- which means that America’s corn production would be below 200 bushels by the end of this decade.  Way short of what we need.

So, this company invested heavily by acquiring a weather-data company.  And, it partnered with Novozymes to boost crop yields by improving plant microbiomes.  (That’s to address the microbial changes I discussed in the first paragraphs above.)

And, given the fact that this year, agricultural prices are down, it’s hard for farmers to add fertilizer and microbiome augmenters to improve their yields.  It’s a truism for farmers- economics trumps agronomics every day of the week.

This combination means the company must use data to help farmers plant their crops at the exact right distance apart (I wrote about the driverless vehicles for agriculture years ago), treat the soil with microbes to keep it healthy (where the Novozyme input comes into play), and apply fertilizer only to those farm areas that need it- and, at the right time.   Because applying fertilizer or pesticides to entire farms is NOT the right way to go.  That concept, one we’ve used forever, is akin to adding aspirin to the drinking water of a town, just so that the five folks that have headaches will feel better.

Which means we need to integrate satellite information, weather, field trials, farmer inputs, soil maps, and yield data into this complex agricultural situation.  In other words, we need big data and great analysis to improve our farm yields.  Which is why this firm bought the weather data company- and partnered with Novozyme.

I’ve already spoke how the two executive officers of this firm returned money to their corporate treasury, when they found out some of their sales managers were inflating data.  Those illegal actions (the sales managers were found guilty) had raised the stock price.  Which meant these executives received  bonuses based upon improper data.  So, they returned the bonuses.

This firm started out at the turn of the last century (1901) as a chemical company.  It morphed its way into becoming a biotech company.  Then, it morphed its way to becoming a seed company.  And, now it’s becoming a data company.  Because, as their CEO proclaims, big data “becomes the glue, the catalyst, that holds the chemistry and biology together.”

The new mission of the firm is now “Feeding the world through math”.

Yes, this firm is Monsanto.  Yes, the company that made agent orange that was so devastating to our environment.  And, yes, despite the ‘sky-is-falling’ crowd’s lament about GMOs (which the US National Academies of Medicine, Science, and Engineering all reviewed and recognized their safety), these are crucial for the world’s population surviving through the next century.

By the way, why is it that these very same folks reject technology for their food- but demand it- NOW– from their doctors and hospitals for their bodies.  Maybe they should read about Norman Borlaug, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1970.  The one who started the Green Revolution.

 

 

 

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter
Share

12 thoughts on “Feed the World”

    1. The data, Kritnine, doesn’t go back too far- if one wants explicit and complete results (since the satellites have been recording the data). But, they do have temperature, rain, etc. going back a very long time.
      Using 5 year data, trends, current movements, etc. can help determine when to seed, when to fertilize (if at all) [in addition to ground data- plus adding micriobiota), etc. And, with the computer driven rigs, they can absolutely pinpoint each location they will apply their wares.

      Thanks for that GREAT question, Kristine.

  1. Roy, what an integrative scientist/thinker/agroguy you are! The way you put data and ideas together is staggering. Glad to hear you believe in Montsanto’s changes. They could be powerful change agents– for good.

  2. You covered a lot of valid points and gave sources to back them up. Your point on Monsanto is a controversial point of discussion.

    Great post!

  3. I had only heard the bad side of Monsanto. A proof that many things in life are complex; very little black or white. I find the use of technology in farming to time things due to global warming interesting, given that I am also a supporter of organic farming.

    1. I am not saying that Monsanto is perfect. But, they certainly are providing valuable and necessary services for the world. Because we are short on food- and the future water shortages will be much worse.
      And, if they really get their data system queued up, just applying the right water and nutrients would be an outstanding improvement.

Comments are closed.