Water Shortage by 2050

High and Dry?

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I have written way more than a few times that our next battles are not going to be about gold, rare metals, or even oil. The next battles are going to be about water. Because the world is running out of pure, drinkable water. And, in some parts of the world, water is already a non-existent commodity.

First, consider this basic fact. The amount of water on this Earth has been constant. Since Adam and Eve first walked upon this planet, not one new drop of water has been created. (So, stop telling me that you are not willing to reuse water- for drinking. Tell me- and the politicians- we need to do a better job of cleaning up our wastewater, so the next time it is mixed with our water resources and we drink it, we won’t be worrying how sick we may become.) Oh, and the bulk of the water on Earth is not freshwater (only 3% is).

Now, consider Africa. Where drought has ravaged the ability to farm crops. Or, in India, where the drought has done the same…even the River Ganges is running dry. In California, reservoirs (which often double as recreational lakes) are so low, docks are scores of feet from the nearest patch of water. Right now, some 1.6 billion folks around the globe reside in regions of water scarcity.

Now, the World Bank has issued a report that depicts a drying world by 2050. How dry? Dry enough to cut 6% off GDP of various countries. Which means negative growth (or retraction) for the economies of much of Africa, India, China, and the Middle East. Which also means that some 3 to 4 billion folks will be lacking adequate fresh water.

These are the facts as outlined  in their new report, “High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy. The scariest part of the message- even if we improve our water utilization, by 2050, North Africa and the Middle East are going to be very dry places.

Water Shortage by 2050

I know, you can’t quite see that link between climate change and water shortages, right? Well, climate change (warmer temperatures) will effect more evaporation of water. It also causes intense downpours (including derechos) and droughts- often alternating between one another. Those intense downpours mean tremendous runoff of water- without any land absorption. With less soil absorption of that water comes diminished groundwater capacity- which, since only 3% of the Earth’s resources are freshwater and 30% of that capacity is underground- you can begin to see how the shortages will be amplified. That situation, combined with alternating drought, means devastated agricultural production. Now, it’s no water and no food for those regions affected!

Moreover, climate change involves the seas encroaching on our coastal aquifers. And, where and when this occurs, those aquifers are now rendered more saline. Which means the water is less usable, unless energy intensive processes such as reverse osmosis (on very, very large scales) are implemented. Fortunately for those of us who reside in North America and Europe, our situation will decay, but won’t become crises.

But, for the rest of the world, the global food system will be searching for 40 or maybe 50% more water than today by 2050. Industrial needs will increase by some 50 to 75%, with the energy sector sucking up 85% more.

The net result?   We will be suffering from selective brownouts and diminished industrial output.

 

Climate Change Affects GDP

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