Moore’s Law. 50 years old. It’s showing its age.
Sure, Murphy’s Law is the law better known to the younger (and older) set today. (That law states that anything that can go wrong will go wrong.)
But, Moore’s Law was the end all and be all that described advances in computer technology for decades. Gordon Moore, the PhD Chemist who was the CEO and founder of Intel coined it 50 years ago on the 19th of April. (At the time, Moore was the Director of R&D at Fairchild Semiconductor; he published this observation in Electronics magazine.) It promised that the performance of integrated circuits will double every 18 months. (Performance meant speed of the chip would double, the price would have, and/or the size would be sliced.)
It turns out Moore’s Law works for a slew of technology events and social media- biotech, 3D printing, and the like, too. But that is not terribly surprising, since it is a corollary to the concept of creative destruction (also called Schumpeter’s Gale). That theory was expounded by Joseph Schumpeter some 75 years ago. It explains economic innovation and business cycles. (Actually, Schumpeter Gale really states that the vital force behind capitalism is innovation- and the creative entreprenuer who would introduce that change routinely.)
It demonstrates that we really are not the masters of our destiny- since change will always buffet us. It will bring us new opportunities or new threats- depending upon how we view the situation.
And, like Murphy’s Law, Moore’s Law is not 100% scientific. Moore’s Law is based upon empirical observation, the finding that computers were getting more and more powerful every 18 months.
But, Moore’s Law is no longer 100% accurate, in that things in the computer hardware arena are no longer changing that quickly. (Maybe we can catch our breath a little, now.) And, that has tremendous portent for my kids – since they have never lived in a world where Moore’s Law did not apply.
And, while Moore’s Law may no longer be working on an 18 month cycle, you can bet that technology will keep changing. It’s just that the front wave has moved from computer hardware to distributed apps on our phones and tablets. It’s that front wave that explains how 3D printing will change how we produce our products in the future.
So, whether we call it Moore’s Law, Creative Destruction, or Schumpeter’s Gale, we know we have to be continually looking at new ways to deliver what we do, to produce what we do, to accomplish what we must- or someone or something else will replace our ways.
Here’s to change!
