Tag Archives: recession

Thriving in a Recession: Tips for Managing Your Household Budget and More

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This post is a guest contribution from Lucas Weaver of the Yolopreneur.  However,  there were items that needed more direct information, so it is more of a collaboration between Mr. Weaver and Dr. Ackerman; but it was Lucas who first arrived at the subject matter- and the bulk of this post is his thoughts..Luke Weaver

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Have you adjusted your business operations and strategy yet?

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I warned y’all that that the Federal Reserve was going to make running our businesses more difficult this year.  These repetitive ¾% interest rate hikes are supposed to control inflation- and they probably will- but in the meantime our cost pressures are immense and the economy is roiling under their yoke.

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Knock, knock- is it here yet?

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So, are we going to convince ourselves that we are going to have a depression?

The indicators so far do not so truly designate.  Sure, inflation is rampant.  But, job growth (more than 370K in June alone) is continuing.  Unemployment is at 3.6%.  Consumer spending is holding its own. And, the economy grew by 5.7% last year (pre-Russian invasion)- but now it’s contracted by about 2%, due to the war.

Continue reading Knock, knock- is it here yet?

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What happens when you choose the wrong study upon which you base your actions…

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Big data. Correlation vs. causation. Most people think that it’s imperative that we harness big data to find any correlations that exist. Without once determining what the theory is that could substantiate the correlation. (If you check back to my 19 April post, you will find the references to determine what is wrong with this concept.)

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A slightly different survey…

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And, now cometh a new survey.   One by USBancorp, the fifth largest commercial bank in the US (grown by merger of banks in the West and the Upper Midwest).  One in its third year- and it is an annual survey.  But, their definition of small business is different than that of BankofAmerica, which I discussed on 31 May 2012.  (I told you we did not have uniform definitions!)  USBank (the name under which USBancorp operates) polled 3220 businesses (small?) with $10 million in revenues or less.  (BankofAmerica limited their polling choices to those with half that turnover.  (The survey results are no longer found on the web [2020].)

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Stay in the strike zone!

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We keep hearing various politicians claim that ‘Business’ is afraid to expand because of governmental uncertainty.  Yet, these same folks repeatedly threaten to shut down the government over the smallest of disagreements.  In actuality, nothing is really uncertain in the real business marketplace(the marketplace is always uncertain- I mean more than normal):  The tax code has not changed in years and regulatory pressures (unless operating a power plant) have not been radically changed, with the sole exception of the healthcare insurance situation.  Moreover, healthcare costs have been going up reliably- and without reason- for nigh two decades now, so that’s nothing new to anyone (in or out of the business marketplace).

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Profits Don’t Provide the Whole Picture

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As one reads the newspapers (uncritically), one would assume that business is booming.  We have just read about the third quarter in a row of impressive earnings growth. Total corporate profits are on the order of $ 1.2 trillion, way higher than before our devastation.  First caveat- we are comparing these results to pretty anemic periods.  If you were running your company and had a 50% drop in profits for one year, the next year’s earnings growth of 100% would mean you were back to just where you were two years ago.

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